A weakening but still hazardous Tropical Storm Bertha is on track to make its way into southeast Louisiana by Wednesday evening, bringing sustained winds near 60 mph and a dangerous rip current threat along the Central Gulf Coast, according to the National Hurricane Center.
As of Tuesday evening, strong upper-level shear from the north had exposed the storm’s low-level center, pushing most of its heaviest rain and wind bands south of the circulation and well offshore into the Gulf of Mexico. Despite this disruption, Bertha has managed to hold onto sustained winds of 60 mph, though forecasters expect the system to gradually lose strength before reaching the Louisiana coastline.
Residents along the Central Gulf Coast should brace for wind gusts between 40 and 45 mph overnight into Wednesday morning as Bertha’s outer bands begin moving onshore. Even with periods of sunshine expected between scattered tropical showers, a high risk of dangerous rip currents is forecast to persist through Wednesday, and officials are urging beachgoers to stay out of the water.
Forecast models show Bertha continuing to weaken as it pushes westward, with wind speeds expected to drop to near 50 mph within 12 hours and keep declining over the following three days as the storm nears the Texas coastline. Landfall in the southeast Louisiana region remains on track for Wednesday evening.
Interestingly, the heaviest rainfall from this system is not expected over Louisiana at all. A seven-day rainfall outlook points to a band of 5 to 11 inches soaking southeast Texas instead, as Bertha’s moisture combines with a separate frontal system. Louisiana and Mississippi, by comparison, are likely to see under 2 inches of rain.
Once Bertha moves further inland and dissipates, a typical summer weather pattern is expected to return across the Gulf Coast from Thursday through the weekend, with sunny skies and only isolated afternoon storms.